Geminor’s strategy of exporting RDF for waste to energy plants to multiple European countries combined with internal supply to UK offtakers has been central to its sustained growth. Strong long-term partnerships in Sweden and Denmark, where exports increased by 38% and 21% respectively, along with a stable presence in Norway and new partnerships in Finland from 2024, have reinforced the company’s market presence and stability amid fluctuations, further solidifying its position as a reliable and adaptable supplier.
In 2024, the Geminor UK managed a total of 645,947 tonnes of waste, including 90,000 tonnes from Ireland. With 364,581 tonnes exported to European markets, the remaining 191,366 tonnes were allocated to domestic offtakers, highlighting the strategic balance between exports and local waste-to-energy solutions. This flexibility allows Geminor to adapt to evolving market conditions, ensuring consistent waste management solutions for its partners.
“We are very pleased to stay ahead of the competition. Our diverse export destinations and stable partnerships ensure that we remain the UK’s largest exporter and a trusted provider for our clients, adapting to their needs in an evolving market,” says Oliver Caunce, Country Manager UK.
The UK waste market faces significant changes in 2025 and 2026, with around 5 million tonnes of new incineration capacity expected to come online. The landfill tax increase in April 2025, will likely shift waste streams towards energy recovery solutions, including RDF exports. However, the impact of increased domestic Energy-from-Waste (EfW) capacity and emerging carbon costs will create uncertainty in the market, raising the question:
Where will the market go? Will there be a surplus of waste, or will domestic capacity absorb it?
Amid this uncertainty, Geminor’s flexibility provides an advantage. “We serve multiple upstream markets in Europe and believe that the UK will remain a stable market for RDF exports. However, if the UK market shifts towards more domestic solutions on waste to energy, we are well-prepared to replace diminished UK RDF export with other upstream markets where demand for outlets for RDF remains strong,” says Kjetil Vikingstad, Founder and Principal Owner of Geminor.
